Ligue 1 relegation prediction: Le Havre have become the leading candidates for the drop after a difficult start, but the latest odds tell only part of the story. Troyes and Le Mans are also under pressure, while Strasbourg’s poor results and worrying defensive numbers make them an intriguing long-priced option. With plenty of the campaign still to come, expected-goals data and performances against direct rivals offer useful context for assessing the market.
The odds below were supplied by Stake and were correct at the time of publication. Betting prices can change, and odds are not a guarantee of an outcome. Anyone considering a wager should check current prices and gamble responsibly.
Ligue 1 relegation odds
- Le Havre to be relegated: 1.32
- Troyes to be relegated: 1.95
- Le Mans to be relegated: 2.20
- Angers to be relegated: 2.50
- Auxerre to be relegated: 3.00
- Strasbourg to be relegated: 12.00
Le Havre: poor results, but room for a recovery
Le Havre’s price has shortened after they collected just two points from their first eight league matches. Didier Digard’s side had finished 14th and 15th in their previous two Ligue 1 campaigns, but this season’s opening run has left them looking vulnerable. Limited summer spending, with the club relying heavily on free transfers and loan signings, has also raised questions about the depth of the squad.
The immediate concern is at the back: Le Havre have conceded 15 goals in eight games. Yet their attacking data suggests their results may be worse than their performances deserve. They have produced an expected-goals total of 12.72, the ninth-highest in the division, and taken 131 shots—more than all but Brest and Paris Saint-Germain. Their actual goal return is 4.72 below expected, one of the largest negative gaps in Ligue 1.
Opta’s expected-points model makes a similar case for patience. It places Le Havre 12th, rather than near the foot of the table, suggesting they have left points behind through missed chances and narrow outcomes. That does not erase their defensive problems, but with 26 matches remaining, improved finishing could make a significant difference. The relegation prediction is understandable, though the underlying numbers offer a reason not to treat their current position as inevitable.
Troyes: the statistics reinforce the danger
Troyes have five points from seven matches, but their goal difference of minus 11 paints a troubling picture. They have conceded 16 times, and their expected-points position matches their actual standing: 17th. In other words, the early results do not appear to be an unlucky blip.
The attack has been particularly inefficient. Troyes’ 9.72 expected goals is the fourth-lowest total in the league, while their shot-conversion rate of 4.59% is the division’s worst. Like Le Havre, they have scored 4.72 fewer goals than their expected-goals figure, but Troyes are creating fewer opportunities overall. That makes a turnaround dependent not only on better finishing, but also on producing more consistently dangerous chances.
Defensive numbers provide little reassurance: opponents have scored 16 goals from 13.60 expected goals, with a conversion rate of 17.02%. If Troyes cannot improve their organisation and reduce the quality of chances they allow, their relegation odds may continue to reflect a genuine threat rather than market overreaction.
Le Mans: an attack capable of keeping them afloat
Le Mans are close to the relegation places and level on points with Strasbourg, but their attacking output gives them a different profile from some of the other candidates. Their expected-goals total of 12.17 ranks 10th in Ligue 1, and they have shown they can compete against varied opposition. Wins over Lorient and a draw with Lens have demonstrated their potential, while even a 3–1 defeat to PSG included 11 shots and an expected-goals figure of 1.43.
The challenge for coach Patrick Videira is stopping the goals at the other end. Le Mans have conceded 16, with an expected-goals-against figure of 16.90. That suggests the defensive record largely reflects the chances opponents have created, rather than being explained by unusually poor luck alone.
Back-to-back promotions can leave a club short of the experience and depth required at the top level. Still, Le Mans’ attacking numbers and expected-points position—15th, one place above their current standing—make them less straightforward to oppose in the relegation market. Their survival may depend on whether the attack can continue compensating for a defence that is allowing too much.
Angers: competitive in the six-pointers
Angers have eight points from eight games, enough to keep them in the relegation conversation but not enough to create much distance from danger. One encouraging feature is their record against fellow strugglers: they have beaten Troyes and Auxerre and drawn with Le Havre and Lorient. Taking points in these direct contests can prove crucial when the table tightens late in the season.
Angers’ expected-goals total of 12.15 ranks 11th, but they have scored only nine times, pointing to a finishing problem. Their defence has also conceded 15 goals, while an expected-goals-against figure of 14.19 suggests opponents have found ways to create meaningful chances.
That combination makes Angers difficult to assess. They have enough attacking promise and resilience against nearby rivals to avoid being an obvious relegation pick, but their inconsistency leaves little margin for error. At odds of 2.50, the case for backing them to go down depends on whether their defensive vulnerability persists and their finishing fails to improve.
Auxerre: attacking quality eases the pressure
Auxerre’s start raised concerns, but their more recent form has steadied the picture. They have lost only once in their last five matches and sit three points above the relegation zone. Their attack has contributed 12 goals, while an expected-goals figure of 12.82 indicates that the scoring return is broadly supported by the chances created.
The main weakness is their defence. Auxerre have conceded 18 goals, among the highest totals in the division, and opponents’ 15.65% shot-conversion rate is second only to Troyes. Even so, Opta’s expected-points table places them 10th, two positions above their actual league standing. If their forward line maintains its output, it may be able to offset some of the defensive risk.
For now, Auxerre’s recent improvement and attacking potential make them a less compelling relegation selection than their early-season reputation might suggest. Their defence remains a clear concern, but the available indicators do not point as strongly towards a drop as they do for several rivals.
Strasbourg: long odds, serious warning signs
Strasbourg are priced at 12.00, making them the longest-priced team in this group, but their performances deserve close attention. They have seven points from eight matches and are winless in five, including four consecutive defeats against Paris FC, Nice, PSG and Rennes. Opta’s expected-points model puts them bottom with 6.6 points, the lowest figure in the league.
Their attack has generated only 9.53 expected goals, the third-lowest total, even though Strasbourg have scored 2.47 goals more than that figure. This overperformance suggests their goal tally may be relying on clinical finishing rather than a steady supply of high-quality chances. Defensively, they have conceded 18 goals, while their 15.63 expected goals against points to deeper problems than bad luck alone.
Strasbourg have faced 131 shots, with only Marseille facing more, and no Ligue 1 side has allowed more shots on target than their 49. Managerial changes and significant player turnover add another layer of uncertainty, as a reshaped squad may need time to develop cohesion. Last season’s recovery offers a reminder that poor form can turn around, but the current numbers make Strasbourg a credible long-shot relegation prediction—not a certainty.
Which Ligue 1 relegation pick stands out?
Le Havre and Troyes have the shortest odds, although Le Havre’s strong chance-creation figures leave some room for improvement. Troyes’ low conversion rate and weak expected-points position make their danger more firmly supported by the data. Le Mans have an attack that could keep them competitive, while Angers’ results against direct rivals complicate their case. Auxerre appear to have the clearest route to safety if their scoring continues. Strasbourg, meanwhile, combine poor results with substantial defensive and squad-stability concerns, making them a notable long-priced option for bettors comparing the Ligue 1 relegation market.
