2026/27 EFL Cup Winner Prediction: Is Everton the Best Value Bet?
The 2026/27 EFL Cup has taken an unexpected turn after League Two side Fleetwood Town eliminated Arsenal on penalties. With one of the pre-tournament favourites gone and the quarter-finals approaching, the outright market is wide open. Manchester City remain the bookmakers’ leading choice, but the odds raise a more interesting question: which contender offers the best value?
Everton stand out as a strong alternative. David Moyes’ side have a favourable quarter-final draw, no European schedule to manage and a genuine opportunity to pursue a first major trophy in decades. In this football prediction, we assess the leading contenders, their routes to Wembley and the factors that could shape the EFL Cup winner market.
2026/27 EFL Cup winner odds
Manchester City: 2.40
Liverpool: 3.00
Everton: 6.00
AFC Bournemouth: 13.00
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change. Betting odds can move as teams progress, injuries emerge and markets respond to new information. Always check current prices and gamble responsibly.
Manchester City: The favourites, but not necessarily the best bet
Manchester City are the defending EFL Cup champions after beating Arsenal in the 2025/26 final. Their record in the competition is formidable: City have reached ten finals and won nine, including four consecutive titles between 2018 and 2021. That experience explains why they lead the current outright market.
Their quarter-final draw also looks favourable on paper. City host League One club Bradford City at the Etihad, giving them a clear opportunity to reach the last four. Yet their previous round was a reminder that cup football rarely follows the script: City needed a penalty shootout to get past Brighton.
There is also a scheduling question. Pep Guardiola’s squad are pursuing major honours across the Premier League and Champions League, so rotation may be necessary. That can create opportunities for younger and reserve players, but it can also reduce the cohesion that makes City so difficult to beat. Arsenal’s surprise exit after fielding a changed side against Fleetwood is a timely warning about the risks of treating a cup tie as routine.
City are undoubtedly the team everyone else must overcome. However, at 2.40, the price leaves limited room for error, especially given the demands of their season and the unpredictability of knockout football. They are credible favourites, but not the most attractive value pick.
Liverpool: Quality and cup experience, but a difficult test awaits
Liverpool are second favourites at 3.00 after navigating a demanding route to the quarter-finals, including wins over Premier League rivals Chelsea and Tottenham. Their depth and experience make them serious contenders, and their history in the competition is impressive: the Reds have won two of the last five EFL Cup tournaments.
The immediate obstacle is Bournemouth, who visit Anfield in a quarter-final that could be much closer than the odds suggest. Liverpool edged the Cherries 1-0 in their earlier meeting this season, but Bournemouth have since built momentum and arrive in strong form. A single-match tie gives the visitors a realistic chance to turn that confidence into an upset.
Liverpool’s home performances have also been inconsistent. They have already suffered two Anfield defeats this campaign and have recorded only two home clean sheets. Those numbers do not rule out a cup run, but they make Liverpool less convincing at a relatively short price.
There is a broader consideration, too. A demanding league campaign means Liverpool may need to balance domestic priorities with their cup ambitions. They have the squad to compete on multiple fronts, but their quarter-final is a tougher assignment than City’s or Everton’s. Liverpool remain a threat, though their current odds do not appear especially generous.
Everton: A favourable draw makes the Toffees the value selection
Everton offer the clearest value among the leading contenders at 6.00. Their quarter-final takes them to Fleetwood Town, the lowest-ranked team remaining in the competition. Fleetwood deserve respect after knocking out Arsenal, but reproducing that result will be difficult. Everton can approach the tie with greater experience and a chance to exploit the hosts’ limitations over 90 minutes.
Everton also have a practical advantage: they are the only Premier League club still in the competition without European commitments this season. Avoiding midweek continental travel could help Moyes keep his squad fresher and prepare more thoroughly for each round. In a compact knockout competition, that extra recovery time can matter as much as headline talent.
The club’s motivation is equally significant. Everton’s most recent major trophy was the 1995 FA Cup, leaving supporters waiting more than three decades for another major piece of silverware. A run to Wembley would carry enormous meaning, and Moyes will know the value of giving his players a clear, achievable target.
Recent performances offer further encouragement. Everton’s 3-0 win over Newcastle was a confidence boost, while their underlying attacking numbers suggest there may be more potential in the team than their league position indicates. FotMob data has placed the Toffees among the Premier League’s stronger sides for average player ratings and big chances created. Their high number of missed chances points to room for improvement in front of goal, rather than a lack of attacking threat.
Fleetwood’s achievement should not be dismissed, but history offers a useful perspective. It has been several years since a club outside the top two divisions reached the EFL Cup semi-finals. Everton must still perform, yet the draw gives them a credible route into the final four—and potentially beyond.
Bournemouth: The dangerous outsider at 13.00
Bournemouth are the longest-priced of the four leading contenders, but their recent form makes them difficult to ignore. The Cherries have won six consecutive matches in all competitions, scoring 16 goals and keeping six clean sheets. Their results have included impressive performances against high-profile opposition, suggesting that confidence and tactical organisation are both moving in the right direction.
Their attacking numbers reinforce the case. FotMob figures place Bournemouth among the Premier League’s leading teams for expected goals, while their average shots on target indicate a side capable of creating sustained pressure. They have the firepower to trouble Liverpool, particularly if the home side’s defensive uncertainty continues.
Still, the Anfield tie is a substantial hurdle. Liverpool possess more experience in cup football and will be keen to use their home advantage. Bournemouth’s narrow league defeat to the Reds earlier in the season shows they can compete, but they will need to be clinical to convert that promise into a semi-final place.
At 13.00, Bournemouth are a speculative option rather than the safest prediction. Their form makes them an appealing outsider, especially for those considering a small stake on the quarter-final upset, but their route is harder than Everton’s.
Final EFL Cup prediction
Manchester City remain the most likely champions according to the market, but their short price, busy schedule and need for rotation make them less compelling as a value selection. Liverpool have the pedigree, though Bournemouth present a difficult quarter-final challenge. Bournemouth themselves are in excellent form, but must first overcome one of the competition’s most experienced clubs.
Everton are the preferred EFL Cup winner prediction. Their favourable tie against Fleetwood, lack of European commitments and strong motivation create a persuasive combination at odds of 6.00. The Toffees still need to deliver on the pitch, and Fleetwood have already proved that reputations count for little in knockout football. Even so, Everton look like the most balanced choice between realistic title prospects and an attractive price.
