Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction: Reds Favoured to Reach EFL Cup Quarter-Finals
Liverpool and Chelsea meet at Anfield on Thursday with a place in the EFL Cup quarter-finals at stake. It is one of the standout fixtures of the fourth round, bringing together two high-profile sides with different levels of confidence after their latest Premier League results.
Liverpool arrive encouraged by a 2-0 victory over Brighton, while Chelsea are looking to respond after a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham. The visitors have also lost Cole Palmer to suspension, a significant absence for a team that may need his creativity to trouble Liverpool. Our football prediction leans towards the hosts progressing, with goals likely at both ends.
Liverpool vs Chelsea best bets
Liverpool to qualify at odds of 1.85 with Parimatch
Liverpool to score the first goal at odds of 1.95 with Parimatch
Liverpool or draw and over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.45 with Parimatch
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea
Goalscorer prediction: Alexander Isak for Liverpool; Danny Welbeck for Chelsea
Form guide: contrasting moods before the cup tie
Liverpool’s win over Brighton was a timely boost. They produced a composed performance at Anfield, keeping a clean sheet against a side capable of causing problems for the league’s strongest teams. The result also followed a productive spell in front of goal, with the Reds scoring 12 times across three matches before the Brighton fixture.
Manager Andoni Iraola is expected to take the competition seriously. With the EFL Cup offering a realistic opportunity to win silverware, Liverpool have reason to field a strong side despite a busy schedule. Their home performances in cup competition have been particularly encouraging: they have already beaten Atletico Madrid, Villarreal and Tottenham at Anfield this season. Liverpool also defeated Spurs 3-1 in the previous round.
Chelsea, meanwhile, need a response. Their defeat to Tottenham was a setback in a London derby they had been expected to win, and it marked their third league loss of the 2026/27 campaign. A difficult defensive run has added to the concern: Chelsea have conceded 15 goals in eight league games, the highest total among the current top-five sides.
The Blues have still shown they can be dangerous in attack, scoring 17 league goals—more than Liverpool’s 11. Their recent results have also been unpredictable, including a 5-1 win over Bournemouth, a 3-0 loss to Brentford and a 2-2 draw with Hull. That mixture of attacking promise and defensive uncertainty makes this a potentially open cup contest.
Team news and expected lineups
Liverpool have several injury concerns. Conor Bradley, Dominik Szoboszlai, Giovanni Leoni and Jeremie Frimpong are unavailable, while Victor Munoz is rated doubtful. Even with those absences, the Reds should have enough depth to put out a competitive starting XI.
Chelsea will be without Palmer, who was sent off after receiving two bookings against Tottenham and is suspended for Thursday’s match. First-choice goalkeeper Emi Martinez is sidelined with a jaw injury, while Pep Chavarria is carrying a knock and Reece James is unavailable with a knee problem. Joao Pedro is also a doubt after missing the Spurs defeat. Losing Palmer—and potentially Pedro—would reduce Chelsea’s options in the final third.
Probable Liverpool lineup: Alisson; Kerkez, Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Ngumoha, Barcola, Nyoni; Isak.
Probable Chelsea lineup: Penders; Acheampong, Gusto, Fofana, Colwill; Barco, Lavia; Palestra, Estevao, Quenda; Welbeck.
Liverpool to qualify: home advantage could prove decisive
The first recommendation is Liverpool to qualify, whether in normal time, extra time or a penalty shootout. The odds of 1.85 imply a probability of around 54.1%, but Liverpool’s recent home cup record and Chelsea’s current selection problems make the hosts an appealing option.
There is no guarantee of a straightforward win. Chelsea have enough attacking quality to punish mistakes, and cup football can become unpredictable if the match remains level late on. Still, Liverpool’s stronger recent momentum, familiar surroundings and greater availability of key attacking players give them a credible edge over 90 minutes and beyond.
Pick: Liverpool to qualify at 1.85 with Parimatch.
First-goal prediction: Liverpool to strike first
Liverpool are also worth considering to score the opening goal. They have found the net regularly in recent matches, while Isak has been a consistent threat, scoring five league goals in six appearances and recently getting the winner against Brentford. His movement and finishing could test a Chelsea defence that has struggled to maintain its shape.
The Reds have scored first in five of their last seven meetings with Chelsea. That trend is relevant, particularly with Palmer suspended and Pedro’s availability uncertain. Without two of their most influential attacking options, Chelsea may take time to establish a rhythm, giving Liverpool an opportunity to impose themselves early.
Pick: Liverpool to score first at 1.95 with Parimatch.
Goals market: expect an entertaining contest
The final selection combines Liverpool or draw with over 2.5 total goals. Chelsea’s defensive record suggests Liverpool should create chances, but the visitors’ scoring output means they cannot be dismissed as an attacking threat. Even without Palmer, Chelsea may find openings if Liverpool commit players forward.
Rotation can also affect a cup tie’s rhythm. New combinations may take time to settle, particularly in defence, and that can create space for both sides. The most recent meeting at Anfield ended 1-1, but this fixture has the potential to be more open given Chelsea’s recent high-scoring results and Liverpool’s improved attacking form.
The combined selection is priced at 2.45, implying a probability of about 40.8%. A 2-1 Liverpool win fits the available team news and form: the hosts have the advantage, but Chelsea remain capable of scoring.
Pick: Liverpool or draw and over 2.5 goals at 2.45 with Parimatch.
Final Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction
This EFL Cup tie should be competitive, but Liverpool appear better placed to take control at Anfield. Chelsea’s attacking quality gives them a route into the game, yet Palmer’s suspension, possible absences elsewhere and ongoing defensive problems make the visitors vulnerable. Our football prediction is a 2-1 Liverpool victory, with the Reds to qualify and score first.
Bet responsibly. Odds and team news can change, and betting involves risk.
